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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.